Monday, December 05, 2016

To Err is Human to Forgive Divine

...the long range weather forecaster predicted a mild winter with nary a snow drop save for a blizzard of extraordinary dimensions in february but he did not list his track record leaving me with more questions than answers and a desire for a quantitative sense of what he means when he describes something as having extraordinary dimensions which may be interpreted differently if you spent your life in texas where 1.5 inches of snow is the usual amount compared to syracuse where 123.8 inches of snow is common and yet i believe the forecaster because i tend to assume anyone who makes that kind of prediction without resorting to a crystal ball has experience predicting weather patterns without losing oneself in the phenomenon known as wet bias and yet nate silver who predicted that hillary would win the election points to weather predictions as "the one area in which our predictions are making extraordinary progress" despite the tendency of forecasters to align rain amounts with a cavalier bravado and then there is the problem of the polar vortex which when spoken of in an offhand manner sends shivers down the spines of usually resilient new englanders when they imagine the earths' coldest air rushing down the continent past the canadian borders and settling into their hamlet which is unprepared for that assault which brings me back to long range predictions and my desire to know the earliest date I can play golf in the neighboring town in 2017

...according to weather trends 360 and their portfolio of predictive business analytics and their "suite of tools developed for golf courses" this information is available for golf courses at $37.50 a month and that only guarantees an 84% accuracy but i can avail myself of their free predictions for 168 hourly forecasts for the entire globe where i discover the following information: "are you ready for siberia to invade much of the eastern two thirds of the country—it's coming" and with it the temperatures will dip fifteen to twenty-five degrees below the average for this time of year

...the frigid air is in montana and it will move across the country which means that i need to get out and purchase thermal underwear and save my sales slip lest this model has errred


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